India’s Growth Well Below Trend: Deutsche Bank
India continues to report over 7 per cent GDP growth, but its momentum has weakened and the country’s growth is well “below trend”, says a Deutsche Bank report. According to the global financial services major, India’s GDP and gross value added (GVA) grew by 7.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in October-December 2015, reflecting a slowing growth momentum from the first half of this fiscal. According to data of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the economy is expected to grow at a 5-year high of 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal. The CSO data showed that the economy grew at 7.6 per cent in the first quarter, 7.7 per cent in second and 7.3 per cent in third. “We find it difficult to make sense of the current GDP data, with ground reality and high frequency indicators such as IP, PMI, CMIE capex, business and employment surveys indicating a much weaker cycle,” the report added.