IMD Forecasts Normal Monsoon For Third Straight Year

IMD Forecasts Normal Monsoon For Third Straight Year

India News

India’s monsoon rains, that water half of the country’s cultivated land, are expected to be normal for the third straight year.India will receive 97 percent of the long-period average rainfall this year, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. “We feel that India is going to experience a third successive normal monsoon,” KJ Ramesh, director general of meteorology at the IMD said in a media conference. “There is a very less probability of deficit monsoon.”Between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-period average is considered a normal monsoon, and the margin of error is 5 percent.More than 70 percent of India’s yearly rainfall occurs in June to September, making monsoons a key factor for the rural economy as agriculture and allied activities, account for half the employment and contribute 16 percent to the nation’s gross domestic product. That’s according to the annual Economic Survey. A revival in rural consumption is crucial to boost growth after the twin shocks of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax.IMD said that it will come out with its next forecast in June and release an assessment of the onset of monsoon in Kerala on May 15.Last year, India just about managed to receive normal rainfall—95 percent of the long-period average. The distribution was uneven with only the southern states receiving normal rainfall. Rains in east, north east, north west and central India were lower than the long-term average.The north east has been witnessing a declining trend over the past few years and that’s part of a multi-decade variability, DS Pai, director of long-range forecasting at the IMD, told BloombergQuint. “In most of the other parts, we don’t have a trend that we are observing. We should assume that most parts of the country should get normal rainfall.”