Worst for economy is over, corporate earnings growth expected to return in FY19

The government last week estimated that the economic growth in the fiscal year 2017-18 will grow at a four-year low of 6.5%, despite the growth picking up in the second half. However, experts are bullish on Indian economy and are saying that the worst for the economy is over.Deutsche Bank India CEO Ravneet Gill has said that the structural changes that are undertaken by the government haven’t yet paid off and so, upside from that is significant. “Moreover, corporate earnings growth is also expected to return in 2018,” Ravneet Gill told CNBC-TV18.A report by Standard Chartered also pegged a better growth for India, saying that the worst is over for the GDP. “We expect growth to normalise gradually over the next four to six quarters as the disruptive impact of major policy changes fades,” Standard Chartered said in its Economic Outlook in 2018 report.Kotak Securities, too, said that the economy will gradually recover in FY19. Meanwhile, several macroeconomic factors also pointed towards an economic uptick in coming months. According to ICRA, manufacturing is likely to display healthy expansion in volumes in Q3 FY 2018, which should result in a substantial improvement in capacity utilisation on a year-on-year basis.The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also rose to 54.7 in December, a five-year high, as growth was recorded across all three monitored categories — consumer, intermediate and investment. Indian manufacturers upped their staffing levels at the end of the year. In fact, job creation accelerated to the strongest since August 2012, the survey said.However, it will likely take India a few years to return to GDP growth levels of 7.5% and above (the economy grew 7.9% in the year ended March 2016). This because of private investment – a current weak point for growth – is likely to take time to improve.